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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."